Euro-Bund-Future: Summergames!



17:33 17.08.12

Euro-Bund-Future-Traders these days have no easy job to go through. The
last weeks were loaded with news and chaos from Greece, Spain and Italy
besides all the talks from european staff about the rescue of the
european currency. European politicians, european leaders, economists
and european authorities have a lot to say and they do what they can do
very best - they simply use any microphone they can get to spread more
tries and errors or wrong and right ideas to confuse the markets and
feed traders with never ending opportunities. There is absolutely
nothing new to say about all the troubling talks in every microphone
they can get in touch with. Simple way to express it - 28 european
nations with more than 55 opinions or even worse. Markets don´t like to
be confused, they like to face the facts or force guys to deliver those
facts. Right now politicians, governments, economists need to deliver
something without beeing asked for it. What I mean is a way to get more
coordination over the whole mess with the way of acting and smoothing
the european debt-crisis, which is about to get out of control sooner or
later. It doesn´t matter if Merkel or Draghi are pushing the Euro with
more words - right now the ESM is not in place and is nothing more than
just an abbreviation consisting of three letters.

Endless game with bailing out the world of finance and more
Quite smart guys talked about the european debt-crisis way before it
really came up in the international media or appeared on some important
monitors. It was about time to clean up something - you can´t buy goods
without money, you can´t get credit without having
securities/collaterals. Someone who doesn´t care about this, will have
to deal with rushing into bankruptcy! Governments, please don´t save
those guys all the time with our money (tax-money flushed down the
toilet or down the draw these days for institutions or whole countries
like Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Italy and Spain (PIGIS) or so called
ClubMed or to whom ever will be future-debt with way higer taxes the
coming years for us and our kids) - let them go bust and don´t bail them
out! The US will have serious trouble the coming years after Euroland
has washed out its trouble of debt, so does Japan with the highest debt
of all western industrial nations.

Learning curve
The BUND FUTURE (FGBL) offers a lot of opportunities for traders. You
may trade it directly via EUREX or derivatives like CFDs for example.
The Euro-Bund Futures (FGBL) is a based on notional long-term (10 years)
debt instrument issued by the Federal Republic of Germany and a six
percent coupon. You may get more informations about the timetable of
german auctions directly using the website of the Federal Republic of
Germany Finance Agency. On top of that they offer a fact-sheet with some
useful informations. You may read more on the website
www.deutsche-finanzagentur.de or check more informations via your broker
or Eurex directly. On top of that you should screen the rest of the
EZ-countries auctions while trading FBGL. Bunds are still a
safe-haven-play. When markets switch to risk-off it could be a benefit
to be short Bunds or be long the FGBL.

More details about the FGBL-contract:
The Price Quotation is in percent of the par value. The minimum price
change is 0.01% or EUR 10,00. Trading starts at 08:00 and ends at 22:00
(CET). The Bund is one of the most liquid exchange-traded contracts. One
single futures-contract has the size of EUR 100.000. You may get more
informations about the contract as well on the EUREX-website via
http://www.eurexchange.com clicking FBGL in the box.

New highs, new lows?
The last weeks have been very exciting with trading the rollercoaster
named Euro-Bund-Future. In my opinion and it is still delivered and
undermined with facts, Euro-Bund-Future is a good one to place shorts on
every spike up. Old highs around the 146,85ers could be reached and
breached within days, that is why traders should trade with more tickets
with less leverage and the given opportunities to place shorts highering
the leverage step by step up to the yet known roof of 146,85 protecting
them with 150ies or even 151er-stops. Don´t be too greedy. The
Euro-Bund-Future will dive sooner than later under important levels
around 141,05 and after that the first important psychological lever of
140. Interest rates will go up again in 10-year-Bunds (right now they
are trading slightly sub 1,40 %) and they will smell the 1,67-1,70-zone
in a short time. Just imagine the Euro-Bund-Future trading at the level
it should be with rates around 1,70 %??? Yes - it would be simply enough
to be on the short side with a leverage of 5-15, right? It would dive to
older lows of this year around 135ers? Again, don´t act with greed and
take the winners - don´t let them go away. I did´t meet poor traders,
who have taken there winners all the time, right?!

Grexit, Brixit or even worse?
There are more countries fighting the fight of national debt in Europe
besides Greece for example. Obviously Greece is the place to be for
bashers, giving Greece the rest or whatever they aim to do. We don´t
read that much negative here about Spain, Portugal, Ireland or Italy or
now even Cyprus - but we get in touch with the country of chaos named
Greece every single day. Why? However there are more areas of
construction in Europe, the EU or EZ than you might think about. Experts
are really getting much more concerned about strong countries no more
willing to pay the party for ClubMed. Often Finland or Austria and the
Netherlands are named, but at least Germany is the unloved one - paying
the party and not being loved. Someone needs to pay the bills. But we
need to see the huge willing and big steps of reforms for example in
Greece or Spain or Portugal. Ireland already is one step further down
the road of a smaller recovery - it already got the chance to come back
to the bond-markets which should be honoured, because it is a
significant step for Ireland in regaining the economic sovereignty. In
the end we need a common Europe - we need to stand together and not
criticize each other. Finally all of us need competitiveness and a lot
of couhntries simply need to bring down the high rates of unemployment
which is really punishing all of us in Europe. People in work don´t
fight on the streets, people in work don´t force racism. Finally we got
news from UK or better Japan´s biggest Bank Nomura. They issued a
11-page-study about the UK possibly leaving the European Union entirely
or partly. It is all about the referendum! Brixit?? Gosh - God save the
Queen!

FGBL with new low on Thursday
The ending week from 08/13 to 08/17 of August the EURO BUND FUTURE
(FGBL) performed like a rollercoaster. Important levels have been kicked
and crossed. Finally we are trading slightly above the 142-handle at
142,10 (time of analysis - 17:07 CET). We opened around 143,34 on Monday
and dived down to 140,78 on Thursday. The intraday reversal brought us
up to 142,13 on Friday where we are heading around. In general the EURO
BUND FUTURE looks a bit like down for the count, but situations like
these are dangerous and good for a sudden spike. On the longer term we
don´t think about new highs and like the idea of a already taken
double-top. So bullish days deliver good opportunities to collect
cheaper placements of new shorts. Being cautious with our shorts we like
to take positions secured with 149,00 up to 151.00 - that really depends
on how your account is already loaded with other trades - always obay
risk- and money-management-rules and avoid the call of calls - the
margin-call!

Reversal from 140,78 still looks corrective
Right now it still looks like the recovery from 140,78 from Thursday is
corrective. We don´t like to speak about too many things like waves,
indicators or further technical and often too confusing stuff - the
market right now is driven by political stories mostly, news and


risk-on/risk-off-events. Good days show bearish movements for FGBL, bad
days deliver bullish moves for the FGBL. Like always there is a bad time
to enter FGBL Long or Short - always watch the timetable for european
and UK/US-auctions. Don´t run into a trap where only newbies are heading
into. Sometimes is easy to avoid burning cash with the help of better
entries.
The 140-handle will show the psychological importance - it will point
out the relevance for a strong support. This support needs to be taken
in order to dive down more than 600 points from the area we are
currently trading around. The big wave down could lead us to 135ers. The
200-day-moving-average is ticking around 140,18. We found important
Fibonacci-levels slightly sub the 140-handle at 139,92. Looking at the
strong movement in US-T-Bond-Futures we believe the EURO BUND FUTURE
might get sucked down the same direction. Movements above 142,85 would
deliver a neutral picture and could break the bearish scenery again to
deliver a third movement up - a triple-top with a new lower top would be
the ideal way to place new shorts with higher leverage up there around
144,85 up to 145,35. There is a chance it might happen quite close to
the news from the german constitutional court which gives thumbs up or
down for the ESM. Hopefully we won´t be disturbed with a negative
outcome on that one!

Technicals
The FGBL is trading at 142,10 (17:07 CET). The RSI indicates 43,6543 on
a daily chart - currently there is no timeframe with an overbought or
oversold scenario. On daily basis FGBL generates the following supports
and resistances: (S3) 140.38/ (S2) 140.63/ (S1) 141.38 und (R1) 142.38/
(R2) 142.63/ (R3) 143.38. A lot of indicators and further signs give us
the impression to wait for some further updise-movement to place new
shorts.

ATTENTION: Derivates work in both directions of the market!!!
Please be aware that derivatives and other financial instruments work in
both directions of the market. Please don´t trade with to high leverage
and don´t be too greedy. Better take small winners steadily than taking
huge losses once. It is a tough game and task to recover from a huge
draw-down and often impossible to recover after you had the big
shredding of your account. Patience and diversification,
risk-management, money-management are your first duty. Not obaying rules
like these may make you lose your panties in a minute or even faster.
Think about it! You are not trading against kids and dummies, you are
trading against kings and masters and often enough against systems.
Finally you are trading against yourself - each day and with every order
you have placed.

The best wishes, greets to all traders, readers, investors and clients.
Have the perfect and sunny weekend and the perfect start into the next
week loaded with fantastic opportunities!

Dirk Friczewsky
Friczewsky Financial Markets

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Technical anlysis supported by: ActivTrades PLC, 1 Thomas More
Square, London, E1W 1YW
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Über den Autor
 
Autor: Dirk Friczewsky Dirk Friczewsky,
Tradingstrategien

Dirk Friczewsky ist Trader und Analyst bei Friczewsky Financial Markets. Aktien, Anleihen, Devisen, Indizes und Rohstoffe werden einem Marktscreening mittels der Technischen Analyse unterzogen und daraus nachhaltige Tradingstrategien entwickelt. Je nach Marktlage sind die Trading-Setups für Daytrading oder für mittelfristige bis langfristige Investitionen geeignet. Mehr Informationen unter www.friczewsky.com.

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